![]() The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3) (a.k.a. ![]() The revised forecast (Figure 2) uses physical modeling more than its predecessor version (UCERF2), which relied more heavily on expert opinion, and its time-dependent model has been included as a key source for the updated AIR Earthquake Model for the United States. Intensive models of California fault systems-including the San Andreas-have been captured in the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) developed by the 2014 Working Group of California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). In the new maps, the USGS has determined that the probability of a major earthquake of M7.0 or greater has risen statewide the chance of an ~M6.7 earthquake-a similar magnitude to the 1994 Northridge earthquake-in Southern California is now less likely by approximately 30%. ![]() Along the San Andreas are regions of fault-locking that resist the northwestward movement of the Pacific Plate relative to the North American Plate stress builds up until released by earthquakes. However, the boundary of the Pacific and North America tectonic plates that form California’s sleeping giant-the more than 1,200-km San Andreas Fault-has a 75% chance of producing an M7.0 quake or greater in the next 30 years, according to the United States Geological Survey. (Source: USGS)ĭuring the past century, seismicity in California has remained relatively low. A general overview of the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map, indicating the probability of earthquakes throughout the United States. To learn more about how AIR has incorporated the USGS hazard maps, please read this blog post. The methodology used represents a complex integration of many different types of empirical earthquake data and results from physical models. AIR researchers incorporated the updated USGS earthquake hazard models to generate stochastic earthquakes in the forthcoming update to the AIR U.S. The maps, which are updated on a roughly six-year cycle, are important because they are applied in the seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and public policy they also impact catastrophe models. In 2014, the USGS released a set of new seismic hazard maps that display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the continental United States (Figure 1). Reassessing Seismicity Risk in the United States ![]() This article provides an overview of a selection of these exciting enhancements. Using innovative methodologies and the highest quality data available, AIR researchers have comprehensively updated the shake, fire-following, and liquefaction components of the model and added two new sub-perils: tsunami and landslide. earthquake model, scheduled for release in the summer of 2017. Updated views of tectonic and induced earthquake risk in the United States based on newly available data have been incorporated into AIR’s most significant update to the U.S. ![]()
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